# How Weather Affects Restaurant Sales in the UK, and the Cash Reserve That Covers It

> In a February with 42% more rain than average, UK restaurant sales fell 1.1% and bar sales 4.1%, and pub and bar sales fell 13% on a wet bank holiday Saturday. Meanwhile 29% of UK hospitality businesses hold no cash reserve. How weather moves your takings, how to measure your own rain penalty, and how big a reserve you need.

- Author: Alex Riesenkampff (Super44)
- Published: 2026-09-23
- Canonical: https://super44.ai/blog/weather-restaurant-sales

## Key takeaways

- England had 42% more rain than the long-term average in February 2026, and NIQ recorded like-for-like sales down 1.1% for restaurants and 4.1% for bars against February 2025.
- Pub and bar sales fell 13% on the rainy bank holiday Saturday of 24 May 2025 and 10% on the Monday, both against 2024 (CGA by NIQ Daily Drinks Tracker).
- Heat is no safer a bet: across about 500 venues in London and the South East, Tenzo found the median week-on-week sales change on 2025 and 2026 heatwave days was 0%, with outdoor venues up 3.39% and indoor-only venues down 0.92%.
- 29% of UK hospitality businesses hold no cash reserve at all, a record high, and 73% hold less than six months of costs (UKHospitality, BII, BBPA and Hospitality Ulster, November 2025).
- The Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago, which makes three to four days the useful horizon for any rota or revenue forecast built on the weather.

Weather moves UK hospitality sales by a few percentage points in a wet month and by double digits on the worst days of a wet bank holiday. In February 2026 England had 42% more rain than the long-term average, and NIQ's tracker of 119 managed hospitality groups recorded restaurant sales down 1.1% and bar sales down 4.1% on the year before. **On the rain-soaked bank holiday Saturday of 24 May 2025, pub and bar sales fell 13% against 2024, and the Monday fell 10%, according to CGA by NIQ.** Many venues have nothing set aside for that: 29% of UK hospitality businesses hold no cash reserve at all, and 73% hold less than six months of costs. For a venue that depends on the weather, six months of fixed costs is a sensible reserve, and your own till data can tell you how much a wet week really takes out.

## How does weather affect restaurant sales?

Rain costs trade, and it happens often enough to plan for. **In February 2026, with 42% more rain than average across England, NIQ recorded like-for-like sales down 1.1% for restaurants, 4.1% for bars and 5.0% for on-the-go, while pubs rose 1.0%.** Karl Chessell, NIQ's director of hospitality operators and food for EMEA, said: "February's figures were more of the same, and they are another reminder of how much venues rely on the weather for footfall."

Single weekends show it more sharply. Both May 2025 bank holidays were washed out across much of the country, and CGA by NIQ's Daily Drinks Tracker put pub and bar sales down 13% on Saturday 24 May and 10% on Monday 26 May. A year earlier, the Oxford Partnership counted 49.9 million pints over a wet late-May weekend and found volumes 5.5% down on 2023.

A grey month does its damage more quietly. Drinks sales in managed venues ran 5% behind 2024 in the week to 14 June 2025 and 7% behind in the week to 21 June, and three of that June's four full weeks finished down.

**Weather and sales in UK hospitality, 2024 to 2026**

| Period | Sales change | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| February 2026, 42% more rain than average | Restaurants -1.1%, bars -4.1%, year-on-year | NIQ RSM Tracker |
| Saturday 24 May 2025, rain | Pubs and bars -13%, year-on-year | CGA by NIQ |
| Monday 26 May 2025, rain | Pubs and bars -10%, year-on-year | CGA by NIQ |
| Week to 21 June 2025, changeable weather | Drinks sales in managed venues -7%, year-on-year | CGA by NIQ |
| Late May bank holiday 2024, rain | Pint volumes -5.5% against 2023 | Oxford Partnership |

*Averages across managed groups. An independent venue can lose much more than this on the same day, or nothing at all.*

## Does hot weather increase restaurant sales?

Mainly where guests can sit outside. **Tenzo, a restaurant data company, tracked about 500 venues in London and the South East through six heatwaves in 2025 and 2026 and found the median week-on-week sales change on heatwave days was 0%.** The July and August 2025 heatwaves cost the median venue around 3 to 4% on the week before. Venues with outdoor seating averaged a 3.39% gain, and indoor-only venues a 0.92% fall.

Where your trade comes from matters as much as the temperature. Tim Skinner runs the Devonshire Arms in Marylebone and the Prince Albert in Guildford. In the June 2026 heatwave he said office workers stayed home instead of travelling into London, and the Devonshire Arms traded 20% behind forecast. Neighbourhood pubs held up better on evening trade, he said. Tim Bird of Cheshire Cat Pubs and Bars described what operators are planning around: "it's one complete extreme of cold rainy weathe[r] one minute to a completely Mediterranean climate the next, no middle ground!"

So a sunny forecast is a good reason to add a shift at a café with a terrace. At a city-centre bar that lives on office trade, the same forecast can be a reason to hold back.

## How to work out what rain costs your venue

National averages tell you the direction. Your own till tells you the size. **Twelve months of daily takings gives you about 52 of each weekday, which is enough to compare your wet days with your dry ones.**

1. Export daily net sales for the last year from your till.
2. Next to each day, note whether it rained during trading hours and the day's top temperature. Any weather site with a history page will do.
3. Compare like with like: wet Saturdays against dry Saturdays in the same months. A wet July Saturday and a dry January Saturday differ for reasons that have nothing to do with rain.
4. The average gap is your rain penalty for that weekday. Work it out for each weekday, then multiply each one by the number of wet days on that weekday in a bad month. The total is the sales a wet month costs you. The cash you lose is a little less, because you also sell less stock.

A worked example in round numbers: a café takes £2,400 on an average dry summer Saturday and £1,900 on a wet one. Its rain penalty is £500 a Saturday. Four wet Saturdays in a month cost it £2,000 of sales on Saturdays alone. Take off the food and drink it did not have to buy for those covers, and what is left is the cash the rota and the reserve have to absorb.

Split it by daypart too. The penalty may be large on weekends and small midweek, or large at lunch and nothing in the evening, and that tells you where to cut hours on a wet day and where to leave the rota alone.

## How far ahead can you trust the forecast?

Three to four days is a sensible limit. **The Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago.** That is close enough to set a rota and a fresh-food order against.

Rain is the weak spot. Germany's national weather service, the DWD, publishes its hit rates: next-day temperature forecasts now land within tolerance more than 90% of the time, while rain is still listed as a challenge. Rain is also the variable that decides whether your garden or terrace earns anything that afternoon.

In practice, trust the temperature more than the rain symbol, and treat anything a week out as a hint. The same limit applies to any sales forecast built on the weather, including one built from your own rain penalty.

### Change the order before you change the rota

**A fresh-food order placed against a three-day forecast can be corrected at the next delivery, while a cancelled shift cannot be taken back.** So act on a doubtful forecast in the cheapest place first: trim perishables and prep for a wet weekend, and leave the rota until the forecast and your own rain penalty point the same way. Keep a weekly note of what the forecast said against what you took. After a month or two you will know how far to trust it for your street, which is worth more than any national accuracy figure.

## How much cash reserve should a restaurant have?

There is no official figure for hospitality, and most of the sector holds too little. **29% of UK hospitality businesses hold no cash reserve at all, a record high, and 73% hold less than six months of costs**, according to a November 2025 survey by UKHospitality, the British Institute of Innkeeping, the British Beer and Pub Association and Hospitality Ulster. "Those with no cash reserves – a critical safety net – has reached a record high," the four bodies said in a joint statement. In early 2024 the no-reserve figure was 25%.

For a venue with a terrace, a beer garden or trade that depends on passing footfall, six months of fixed costs is a sensible target, and it puts you ahead of about three-quarters of the sector. Mixed trade with a few outside tables needs about four. A venue with steady indoor trade from regulars and bookings can run closer to three.

**How big should your reserve be?** *(guided estimator in the web version)*

- **Monthly fixed costs (rent, wages, standing bills):** £12,000
- **How exposed is your trade to the weather?:** High — A terrace, a garden or mostly passing trade. Six months, more than about three-quarters of UK hospitality businesses hold.
  - Other choices: Low / Some

| Result | Example value |
| --- | --- |
| Target cash reserve | £72,000 |

*Use your own fixed costs. The three levels are working assumptions for planning, not an official benchmark.*

### Why a good summer can still leave you short

A strong August can hide the problem. **Accountants Smith Butler call it the "August Cash Trap" and recommend moving roughly 20% of takings for VAT and usually 10 to 15% for PAYE and National Insurance into separate accounts, one for each bill.** They add that you should check the right PAYE share for your own payroll. Their point is timing: the autumn VAT and PAYE bills arrive after the busy weeks, against a balance that was never all yours to spend. They also suggest a separate account they call "Winter Working Capital" and a 12-week rolling cash flow forecast, which is about the right horizon for a reserve decision.

### Build it in the good months

Skimming the good months works because the money leaves the current account before day-to-day spending absorbs it. It is also slow. **Moving 10% of a £40,000 month adds £4,000, so a £72,000 target for a venue with £12,000 of monthly fixed costs takes about 18 good months to fill.** Start before the reserve is needed, and treat any windfall month as a chance to catch up.

**Building a weather reserve in four steps**

1. **Find your worst month:** Look back two or three years and note real sales in your weakest month, not the yearly average.
2. **Find the cash shortfall:** Add up everything that went out that month, including rent, wages, stock, card fees and bills, and set it against what came in. The shortfall is what the reserve has to cover.
3. **Skim the good months:** In any month that beats your average, move a fixed share, for example 10%, to a separate account the day the month closes.
4. **Check it every spring:** Recalculate after each season. A wet 2025 summer is a better guide to the next one than a plan written in a dry year.

*All of this runs on numbers you already have. It needs a date in the diary more than it needs software.*

### If the reserve runs low

**Agree an overdraft limit after a strong season, when your last three months of trading make the best case to the bank.** Asking in the middle of a wet August means asking with your weakest numbers. For a larger gap, such as a refit or a second bad year, our guide to the [Growth Guarantee Scheme](/blog/uk-growth-guarantee-scheme) explains the government-backed loan route and who it suits.

### See what the weather costs your venue

Super44 matches your till data against the weather for every trading day, shows what rain, heat and cold are worth to your venue, and forecasts the next few days' sales from the weather forecast.

[See how it works](https://super44.ai)

[Or start now, it's free](https://app.super44.ai/?entry=blog_post_get_started)

## Should you cut staff when the forecast is bad?

Rarely at short notice. **Build the rota lean from the three-to-four-day forecast, add hours as the forecast firms up, and keep same-day cuts for days when your own rain penalty is large, because short-notice cancellations are due to carry a cost for zero- and low-hours staff.**

Under the Employment Rights Act 2025, zero- and low-hours workers will be owed compensation when a shift is cancelled or cut short at short notice. The amount and the notice period are still being set in regulations, and our guide to the [Employment Rights Act's rota changes](/blog/uk-employment-rights-act-rotas) tracks what is confirmed. Keep a short list of people who can pick up extra hours at a day's notice, so a better forecast adds staff instead of a worse one cutting them.

### When it is too hot to work

Heat can close a venue outright. **The landlord of The Trafalgar in Wimbledon, Oli Carter-Esdale, closed the pub during a May 2026 heatwave once the temperature behind the bar passed 34°C, saying "the staff must take priority over a day's takings."** He added that "no one wants to work in those conditions and nor should they have to." He gave up a full day of trade on purpose. Decide your own closing point before the hot day arrives, and count those days in the reserve.

## Where Super44 fits

Super44 connects to your till and runs the rain-penalty analysis for you, with no exports and no typing in weather records. **It lines up every trading day's sales against that day's weather, tells you what rain, heat and cold are worth to your venue, and uses that relationship with the weather forecast to forecast your sales for the coming days.** You can ask it directly, "how does my business depend on the weather?", and get an answer built from your own numbers.

The same forecast feeds the rota. Each week Super44 redrafts next week's schedule against expected demand, from your sales history and the forecast for those days. The revised plan arrives without you asking for it, and you publish it; nothing changes on the rota until you do.

The forecast carries the same limit as the weather behind it: firm three or four days out, looser after that. Use it to set the rota and the order. Keep the reserve for the weeks nobody saw coming.

If you are still in your first months of trading, our guide to [cash flow in a new venue's first six months](/blog/cash-flow-first-six-months) covers the groundwork before a reserve. If your problem is a quiet month rather than a wet week, our [slow season playbook](/blog/dead-season-playbook) covers the demand side, which no reserve fixes.

## FAQ

### How does weather affect restaurant sales in the UK?

Rain costs a few percentage points in a wet month and much more on the worst days of a wet bank holiday. In February 2026, with 42% more rain than average in England, NIQ recorded restaurant sales down 1.1% and bar sales down 4.1% year-on-year. On the rainy bank holiday Saturday of 24 May 2025, pub and bar sales fell 13% against 2024. These are averages across managed groups, so your own venue can sit well above or below them.

### Does hot weather increase restaurant and pub sales?

Only for some venues. Tenzo tracked about 500 venues in London and the South East through six heatwaves in 2025 and 2026 and found the median week-on-week change on heatwave days was 0%. Venues with outdoor seating averaged a 3.39% gain and indoor-only venues a 0.92% fall. In the June 2026 heatwave, a central London pub traded 20% behind forecast because office workers stayed at home.

### How much cash reserve should a restaurant have?

No official figure exists for hospitality. For a venue whose trade depends on the weather, six months of fixed costs is a sensible target, and it puts you ahead of the 73% of UK hospitality businesses that hold less, according to a November 2025 UKHospitality survey. 29% hold nothing at all.

### Can I forecast my restaurant's sales from the weather?

Yes, if you have a year of daily takings. Compare wet and dry days on the same weekday in the same months to find what rain costs you, then apply that to the forecast for the coming days. Super44 does this from your connected till data. Either way, the sales forecast is only as good as the weather forecast under it. The Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago, so plan from three or four days out.

### How far ahead can I trust a weather forecast for staffing?

About three to four days. The Met Office says its four-day forecast is now as accurate as its one-day forecast was 30 years ago. Rain is harder to call than temperature, so give the rain symbol less weight than the temperature, and treat anything a week out as a hint rather than a basis for cutting shifts.

### Should I close when it is too hot to work safely?

Sometimes. The landlord of The Trafalgar in Wimbledon closed during a May 2026 heatwave when it passed 34°C behind the bar, saying "the staff must take priority over a day's takings." That costs a full day of trade, so decide in advance at what temperature you close, and budget for it in the reserve.

## Sources

1. [NIQ: Wet weather dampens pub, bar and restaurant sales in February](https://nielseniq.com/global/en/news-center/2026/wet-weather-dampens-pub-bar-and-restaurant-sales-in-february/) — Published 18 March 2026. NIQ RSM Hospitality Business Tracker, 119 managed hospitality groups. England had 42% more rain than the long-term average in February 2026; like-for-like sales -0.2% overall, restaurants -1.1%, bars -4.1%, on-the-go -5.0%, pubs +1.0% against February 2025. Source of the Karl Chessell quote.
2. [The Morning Advertiser: Wet weather dampens sales at pubs and bars in May](https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2025/06/16/wet-weather-dampens-sales-at-pubs-and-bars-in-may/) — Published 16 June 2025. CGA by NIQ Daily Drinks Tracker: bank holiday Saturday 24 May 2025 sales down 13% year-on-year; bank holiday Monday 26 May down 10%.
3. [The Morning Advertiser: June sales in managed pubs hit by variable weather and hesitant consumer spending](https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2025/07/14/june-sales-in-managed-pubs-hit-by-variable-weather-and-hesitant-consumer-spending/) — Published 14 July 2025. Week to 14 June 2025 sales 5% behind 2024; week to 21 June down 7%; three of four full weeks of June negative.
4. [The Morning Advertiser: Sales volumes fall as wet weather hits late May bank holiday](https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2024/05/29/sales-volumes-fall-as-wet-weather-hits-late-may-bank-holiday) — Published 29 May 2024. Oxford Partnership analysis of 49.9 million pints over the late May 2024 bank holiday weekend: 5.5% volume drop against 2023, attributed to poor weather.
5. [Tenzo: How UK heatwaves really affect restaurant sales, 2025-2026](https://www.gotenzo.com/resources/insight/how-uk-heatwaves-really-affect-restaurant-sales-2025-2026/) — About 500 hospitality venues across 118 operator groups in London and the South East, six heatwave periods in 2025-2026. Median week-on-week change on heatwave days 0%; July and August 2025 heatwaves around -3 to -4% for the median venue; outdoor venues averaged +3.39%, indoor-only -0.92%.
6. [The Morning Advertiser: Heatwave hits UK pubs as operators adapt trading patterns](https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2026/06/25/heatwave-hits-uk-pubs-as-operators-adapt-trading-patterns/) — Published 25 June 2026. Tim Skinner (Devonshire Arms, Marylebone; Prince Albert, Guildford): office workers stayed home, Devonshire Arms 20% behind forecast, neighbourhood pubs more resilient on evening trade. Tim Bird (Cheshire Cat Pubs & Bars) quote on weather swings.
7. [Met Office: How accurate are our forecasts?](https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who-we-are/accuracy) — "Our four-day forecast is now as accurate as our one-day forecast was 30 years ago."
8. [Deutscher Wetterdienst: Qualität der Vorhersage](https://www.dwd.de/DE/wetter/schon_gewusst/qualitaetvorhersage/qualitaetvorhersage_node.html) — Germany's national weather service. Next-day temperature hit rates have improved to above 90% within tolerance bands; precipitation forecasting described as a continuing challenge; quality falls with lead time. Cited as meteorology, which does not change at the border, not as UK data.
9. [UKHospitality: Further hospitality job losses loom without Budget action](https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/further-hospitality-job-losses-loom-without-budget-action/) — Published November 2025. Joint survey with the British Institute of Innkeeping, British Beer and Pub Association and Hospitality Ulster: 29% of businesses hold no cash reserves, a record high; 73% hold less than six months. Source of the joint-statement quote.
10. [UKHospitality: A quarter of hospitality has run out of money as VAT cut tops priority asks](https://www.ukhospitality.org.uk/quarter-of-hospitality-has-run-out-of-money-as-vat-cut-tops-priority-asks/) — Fieldwork by CGA by NIQ, 15 January to 1 February 2024: 25% of businesses held no cash reserves.
11. [Smith Butler Accountants: hospitality cash reserves and the August Cash Trap](https://www.smithbutler.co.uk/news/blog/hospitality-cash-reserve/) — Published 5 August 2026. The "August Cash Trap": move around 20% for VAT and usually 10-15% for PAYE/NI (check your own) into separate accounts, one per bill; a separate "Winter Working Capital" account; a 12-week rolling cash flow forecast.
12. [The Morning Advertiser: South London pub closes during heatwave over staff welfare](https://www.morningadvertiser.co.uk/Article/2026/05/28/south-london-pub-closes-during-heatwave-over-staff-welfare/) — Published 28 May 2026. Oli Carter-Esdale, landlord of The Trafalgar, Wimbledon, on closing when the bar passed 34°C.